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Monday, June 11, 2018

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Modelling and volcanic ash forecast at Barcelona Supercomputing Center
Dr Arnau Floch

Modelling and volcanic ash forecast at Barcelona Supercomputing Center

Event date: 11 June 2018 - 12:00pm to 1:00pm
Event type: Seminar
Venue: ASE 3D Visualisation Laboratory (N2-B1c-16c)
Speaker: Dr Arnau Floch
About the speaker:

Dr Arnau Folch is a senior researcher at Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Author of more than 80 scientific publications, he leads the Environmental Simulations research group. He has participated in more than 40 national and European competitive research projects and in multiple contracts with private companies. From 2011 he acts as the liaison officer between the International Union of Geophysics and Geodesy (IUGG) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and lead the Commission on tephra Hazard Modelling of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI). He has a wide expertise in ash dispersal forecasting and is one of the developers of the numerical model for ash transport FALL3D, widely used worldwide. He is also a permanent member of the Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) of the IUGG-WMO.

 


Modelling and forecasting of atmospheric transport of volcanic ash are experiencing considerable advances boosted by the economic and social impacts of recent events. Aspects such as model data assimilation, ensemble forecast, probabilistic modelling, or impact analysis are progressively being incorporated by the volcanological community and implemented both at scientific and operational level. The Environmental Simulations group at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) works and researches in the areas of urban and microscale wind, wind energy, and atmospheric dispersion modelling, with particular emphasis on volcanic ash. This last topic covers the development of in-house models and its implementation on High-Performance Computing (HPC) environments. FALL3D, WARIS-Transport and ATLAS are examples of off-line models for tephra transport. NMMB/BSC-ASH is an on-line meteorological and chemical transport model developed in collaboration with the U.S National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). SORT-ATM is a tool to evaluate the impact of volcanic ash and mineral dust on civil aviation. Associated methodologies include the assessment of eruption source parameters (e.g. infrasound, volcanic plume models) or the use of satellite images. On the other hand, the Environmental Simulations group collaborates also with other institutions in the modelling of volcanic ash resuspension and ensemble-based forecast using Kalman filters, with very promising preliminary results.

 

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